Ibadan, Nigeria – Long queues are emerging at MRS filling stations across Nigeria, particularly along the Ibadan/Lagos Expressway, as consumers rush to purchase Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), or petrol, at prices below ₦1,000 per litre. As of Saturday morning, private car owners and commercial bus drivers were forming significant lines at MRS stations, where petrol is currently sold at ₦937 per litre.
In contrast, other stations in the vicinity, such as the MRS station at Alapere, are seeing fewer queues, with most having increased their pump prices above ₦1,000. Eterna Plc has hiked its price to ₦1,040, while North West Capital Oil and Fatgbems have adjusted their prices to ₦1,030 per litre. Mobil Station’s price is slightly lower at ₦1,025 per litre.
Adding to the consumer woes, some stations, including those operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, have shut their gates to buyers. The NNPC station at OPIC Estate remained closed as of 7:00 AM Saturday, with reasons for the closure remaining unconfirmed, whether due to product shortages or other factors. Similarly, some TotalEnergies stations along the Expressway were not selling products, with only a few buyers lingering.
This development follows a sharp surge in global crude oil prices, which surpassed the $80 per barrel threshold earlier in the week. Reports on Tuesday indicated that Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals had increased the ex-depot price of petrol from ₦774 to ₦874 per litre, marking a ₦100 hike.
The price increases come after economist Paul Alaje, Chief Economist at SPM Professionals, warned on Monday that petrol prices in Nigeria could climb to approximately ₦1,000 per litre if the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran was not effectively managed. Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Alaje highlighted that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East directly impact crude oil prices.
He explained that “increases in crude oil prices typically translate into higher costs for refined petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, with broad implications for businesses and households.” Alaje further cautioned, “While crude oil goes up, we all need to check the impact on our economy. The first thing you see is high inflation, because as crude oil goes up, the cost of PMS, diesel, and Jet-A1 will also follow.” He projected, “As that is going on, about nine per cent has already attracted more cost for PMS in Nigeria, and by the end of April, we project that if the war is not properly managed, it might get to ₦1,000 plus for PMS in Nigeria.” The economic impact would be far-reaching: “If PMS is ₦1,000, you can imagine what diesel will be; you can imagine what flight tickets will be. It will affect the poor, the middle class, and, of course, the rich.”
Oil prices have seen significant gains during the week as investors monitor the Middle East conflict, with the United States and Israel continuing to engage Iran, and Tehran launching further strikes on its neighbours. These attacks have disrupted regional energy flows, effectively closing off the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil transits. The conflicts have also fueled fears of a new energy crisis and potential inflation spikes.
While market moves have been relatively mild due to hopes of a short-lived crisis, analysts warn that prolonged conflict would inflict greater pain on the global economy through supply chain disruptions and surging prices. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, explicitly threatening to drive up global energy costs. Oil prices surged nearly 14 percent on Monday before slightly easing, and European natural gas prices spiked almost 40 percent after Qatar’s state-run energy firm halted liquefied natural gas production.
A general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning, threatening to “burn any ship” attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. He further stated, “We will also attack oil pipelines and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region. Oil price will reach $200 in the coming days.” Crude prices rose at least two percent on Tuesday, prompting analysts to suggest that the rising energy costs could pose a significant challenge for central bankers attempting to curb inflation while also supporting economic growth through interest rate cuts.
