Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from Stable to Positive while affirming the country’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’, citing sustained economic reforms, stronger external reserves and easing inflationary pressures.
The revision was announced on October 9, 2026. The Federal Government disclosed this in a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele.
According to the statement, Fitch said the action reflects ongoing reform of Nigeria’s policy framework and its increased confidence that reform momentum will be sustained.
“Fitch said the action reflects ongoing reform of Nigeria’s policy framework and its increased confidence that reform momentum will be sustained,” the minister said.
The agency attributed the improved outlook to greater naira flexibility, disinflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Gross reserves stood at $54.9 billion on September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
Fitch linked the increase to increased formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows and higher export receipts and remittances. It said improved reserve quality has strengthened Nigeria’s resilience to external shocks and it projects a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026.
On growth, Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4 per cent in 2025, and expects growth to remain above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028, led by non-oil activity.
The government noted that crude oil production has met its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while average inflation is forecast to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
“Crude oil production has met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while the ramp-up of domestic refining is reducing refined product imports and demand for foreign exchange. Average inflation is forecast to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level,” Oyedele said.
Fitch said crude production, excluding condensates, rose 10 per cent quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2026, averaging 1.52 million barrels per day, supported by improved security and domestic investment. It added that the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery and rehabilitation of other facilities has reduced refined product imports and foreign exchange demand.
On public finances, Fitch expects tax reforms to lift non-oil revenue to 7.5 per cent of GDP and projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the ‘B’ rating median of 56 per cent. The agency also acknowledged Nigeria’s liquid domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks had achieved capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.
Oyedele said the Positive Outlook validates reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu including fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and tax reforms, adding that the medium term ambition is to place Nigeria on a path to investment grade to lower cost of capital, crowd in private investment and create jobs.
With the latest action, all three major rating agencies have taken positive steps on Nigeria in 2026. S and P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from B- to B in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive in August. FTSE Russell also restored Nigeria to Frontier Market status effective September 21, 2026.
